Sunday, May 11, 2008
Blogging Update
by Tom Bozzo
Meanwhile, if you haven't done so, please check out the week's activity at AB:
In the off chance you were wondering why things are quiet here, it's because I've been blogging at the venerable Angry Bear for the last week — and expect to continue to do so until my co-bloggers take away the virtual keys. While I'd like to say that won't change things around here, a finite amount of time for blogging does mean that this site will be less frequently updated (by me) and focus more on matters of personal and/or local interest.
Meanwhile, if you haven't done so, please check out the week's activity at AB:
- Defending, in part, the Consumer Price Index
- On Chrysler's latest sales gimmick, extending fuel price hedging to the masses?
- Looking at the link (or lack thereof) between tax policies and the housing bubble
- Taking a whack at the Shadow Government Statistics alternative GDP series
- Refereeing "Jane Galt"'s efforts to debunk Harvard bankruptcy expert Elizabeth Warren on the plight of the middle class
- Finding new meanings of the term "bracket creep" on the Wall Street Journal's op-ed pages.
Labels: Angry Bear, Meta
Monday, May 05, 2008
Kathryn Cramer performs a useful service
by Ken Houghton
Just to be clear: this announcement (which is not in the order of importance of the poster) doesn't mean anything has changed here.
She doesn't specify her method, but I'm certain the guts-of-the-Internet-savvy can figure it out.
Just to be clear: this announcement (which is not in the order of importance of the poster) doesn't mean anything has changed here.
Labels: Angry Bear, blogging, Meta
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
We Are Tagged, and Tom Seems to be Away
by Ken Houghton
Cactus at AngryBear tries to get into the holiday season by continuing a meme. The problem is that he does it so well that my usual answers would seem pale imitations. So I'll try to play this straight.
1. Wrapping or gift bags? Gift bags are even more suboptimal use of resources than wrapping paper, plus they cost significantly more.
2. Real or artificial tree? Artificial trees are a far superior use of resources, plus they are reused and therefore economically efficient, even including the nominal storage cost. My personal preference for the Silver trees with the light from below with the tri-color (none of them green) filter shining up from below has been vetoed for the past several years.
3. When do you put up the tree? I don't; it goes up whenever Shira finds it in the attic (q.v. storage costs, above) and decides it needs to be on display. The relationship of this timing and the persistent requests of small children is left as an exercise to the reader.
4. When do you take the tree down? As soon as possible. I presume it will be down before Pesach this year.
5. Do you like egg nog? No, I'm human. And rather lactose-intolerant anyway.
6. Favorite gift received as a child? Probably a bicycle, certainly not for Xmas.
7. Do you have a nativity scene? Uh, no. What does that have to do with celebrating the Solstice anyway?
8. Worst Christmas gift you ever received? The day off, since consultants don't get paid.
9. Mail or email Christmas cards? Mail, of course. Have to keep Tom's consulting business going.
10. Favorite Christmas Movie? Anything other than Sophie Marceau is not Enough.
11. When do you start shopping for Christmas? I don't, though I did have a few years of sending holiday cards out annually on December 28th.
12. Favorite thing to eat at Christmas? This is a family blog, so let's just leave the answer at "Food, Glorious Food!" Or, in honor of a Season One Torchwood episode, bananas.
(FYI to cactus: Pomegranates were still available at Costco in NJ a few weeks ago.)
13. Clear lights or colored on the tree? Whatever. Probably colored, since the tree is small.
14. Favorite Christmas song(s)? Robert Earl Keen's "Merry Xmas from the Family," which appears to now be available as a book and CD set.
If it has to be a "traditional" carol, then "I Saw Three Ships," since the Nina, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria arriving at landlocked Bethlehem must have been quite a sight.
15. Travel at Christmas or stay home? I married into what is now a 20-year tradition of a party for "Jews and Orphans" on 25 December. So while I might prefer to travel, I cannot and stay married.
16. Can you name all of Santa’s reindeer? No, and not just because the bit players and taxi squad are never named. By the way, now-F&SF editor Gordon van Gelder's first professional story sale was "Santa's Tenth Reindeer." Gordon was a teenager at the time.
17. Angel on the tree top or a star? I am told that Shira put a Star of David on top. The Eldest put an angel on top of that, so I suppose the answer is both. (The angel, in the TMI category, is as large as the tree itself.)
18. Open the presents Christmas Eve or Christmas Morning? Shira's birthday is December 27th. I really need to go shopping.
19. Most annoying thing about this time of year? End of Year donation solicitations to those of us not independently wealthy enough to have an equivalent of the Samwick Family Fund.
20. Do you decorate your tree in any specific theme or color? See above answers, especially to questions 3, 13, and 17.
21. What do you leave for Santa? Nothing; I tried to file a restraining order, but couldn't get Shira to co-sign it.
22. Least favorite holiday song? If I can only pick one, I would follow the crowd and select "Last Christmas." But in trying to find the appropriate blog link, this one made it clear that, as with greasy, tasteless, potato chip, no one should pick just one. (Though I like The Kink's "Father Christmas," which at least captures the spirit of the season appropriately.)
23. Favorite ornament? Ornaments impede gas mileage, so I really don't have one. The discussion of the BMW ornament in Sean Connery's last great movie indicates some incidental value to them.
24. Family tradition? Good song, but I prefer the work of the Hanks on either side of Bocephus.
25. Ever been to Midnight Mass or late-night Christmas Eve services? Usually during a pub-crawl.
Tom will tag people when he gets back.
UPDATE: Let's do this the easy way. Please feel free to Tag YOURSELF, and note it in comments.
Cactus at AngryBear tries to get into the holiday season by continuing a meme. The problem is that he does it so well that my usual answers would seem pale imitations. So I'll try to play this straight.
1. Wrapping or gift bags? Gift bags are even more suboptimal use of resources than wrapping paper, plus they cost significantly more.
2. Real or artificial tree? Artificial trees are a far superior use of resources, plus they are reused and therefore economically efficient, even including the nominal storage cost. My personal preference for the Silver trees with the light from below with the tri-color (none of them green) filter shining up from below has been vetoed for the past several years.
3. When do you put up the tree? I don't; it goes up whenever Shira finds it in the attic (q.v. storage costs, above) and decides it needs to be on display. The relationship of this timing and the persistent requests of small children is left as an exercise to the reader.
4. When do you take the tree down? As soon as possible. I presume it will be down before Pesach this year.
5. Do you like egg nog? No, I'm human. And rather lactose-intolerant anyway.
6. Favorite gift received as a child? Probably a bicycle, certainly not for Xmas.
7. Do you have a nativity scene? Uh, no. What does that have to do with celebrating the Solstice anyway?
8. Worst Christmas gift you ever received? The day off, since consultants don't get paid.
9. Mail or email Christmas cards? Mail, of course. Have to keep Tom's consulting business going.
10. Favorite Christmas Movie? Anything other than Sophie Marceau is not Enough.
11. When do you start shopping for Christmas? I don't, though I did have a few years of sending holiday cards out annually on December 28th.
12. Favorite thing to eat at Christmas? This is a family blog, so let's just leave the answer at "Food, Glorious Food!" Or, in honor of a Season One Torchwood episode, bananas.
(FYI to cactus: Pomegranates were still available at Costco in NJ a few weeks ago.)
13. Clear lights or colored on the tree? Whatever. Probably colored, since the tree is small.
14. Favorite Christmas song(s)? Robert Earl Keen's "Merry Xmas from the Family," which appears to now be available as a book and CD set.
If it has to be a "traditional" carol, then "I Saw Three Ships," since the Nina, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria arriving at landlocked Bethlehem must have been quite a sight.
15. Travel at Christmas or stay home? I married into what is now a 20-year tradition of a party for "Jews and Orphans" on 25 December. So while I might prefer to travel, I cannot and stay married.
16. Can you name all of Santa’s reindeer? No, and not just because the bit players and taxi squad are never named. By the way, now-F&SF editor Gordon van Gelder's first professional story sale was "Santa's Tenth Reindeer." Gordon was a teenager at the time.
17. Angel on the tree top or a star? I am told that Shira put a Star of David on top. The Eldest put an angel on top of that, so I suppose the answer is both. (The angel, in the TMI category, is as large as the tree itself.)
18. Open the presents Christmas Eve or Christmas Morning? Shira's birthday is December 27th. I really need to go shopping.
19. Most annoying thing about this time of year? End of Year donation solicitations to those of us not independently wealthy enough to have an equivalent of the Samwick Family Fund.
20. Do you decorate your tree in any specific theme or color? See above answers, especially to questions 3, 13, and 17.
21. What do you leave for Santa? Nothing; I tried to file a restraining order, but couldn't get Shira to co-sign it.
22. Least favorite holiday song? If I can only pick one, I would follow the crowd and select "Last Christmas." But in trying to find the appropriate blog link, this one made it clear that, as with greasy, tasteless, potato chip, no one should pick just one. (Though I like The Kink's "Father Christmas," which at least captures the spirit of the season appropriately.)
23. Favorite ornament? Ornaments impede gas mileage, so I really don't have one. The discussion of the BMW ornament in Sean Connery's last great movie indicates some incidental value to them.
24. Family tradition? Good song, but I prefer the work of the Hanks on either side of Bocephus.
25. Ever been to Midnight Mass or late-night Christmas Eve services? Usually during a pub-crawl.
Tom will tag people when he gets back.
Labels: Angry Bear, blogging, Family, just life, Meme-A-Riffic
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Random Notes
by Ken Houghton
So, a few things I might have wanted to discuss, but am now happy to relegate.
The Dustbin of History is a good idea:
Glenn Reynolds defines derivative, and, implicitly, what wasn't:
The here-doubtable Tyler Cowen suggests one should read Megan McArdle instead of Matt Yglesias, failing to note that it was one of "the former Jane Galt"'s idiocies that cued Matt's rant. (Apparently, in McArdle's world, politicans are perfectly neutral, since they say nothing they believe and therefore should never be taken at their word.* Having grown up with Lee Hamilton as my Congressman, I expect better, recent matters notwithstanding.) Fortunately, AngryBear and Mark Thoma beat this one severely into the ground, though Paul Krugman (h/t Thoma) lays to rest the idea that economic ideology alone is the issue.
Posts I Might Have Written:
I spent three days body surfing, and still have some cuts and bruises to prove it. It made me think about the mortgage market. Which means I'm quoting these lyrics:
Only in part because the alternative isn't a song we talk about on family blogs, though several subprime borrowers may find this more appropriate:
Max has left the blogsphere; what is the opposite of "Pareto optimal"? A hearty "L'Shana Tovah!" to him, and change your bookmarks to the robust but unMaxed Econospeak.
My radio this morning produced Nachum interviewing NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Bloomberg, who as a politician reminds me a lot of Bill Clinton (in his pre-mayor days, he sounded less convivial and more cocksure; it may just be age). He mentioned his 98-year-old mother trying to fast on Yom Kippur and fainting. "Mom, G-d doesn't want you not to eat and drink and take your pills, and this is his way of showing it." Especially now, we often forget that fasting on the Day of Atonement is waived for children and those whose health would be negatively impacted.
One way you can tell when an "economics paper" is written for a giggle: when the phrase "participants extended offers (albeit in Canadian dollars)" is used. Note to Dani Rodrik: I didn't bother checking the mathematics involved after hitting that sentence, and I suspect Matthew Dowd would have the same reaction.
*It is also necessary, for this model to have a chance of working, to assume that their policies also do not reflect their speeches or predelictions. For instance, George W. Bush mentioning several times, though in an offhand manner, during the run-up to the 2004 election that he wanted the government to address issues with Social Security must in no way have affected the political discussions of 2005-2006.
Many distractions in the past week, including but not limited to the start of school for the Eldest Daughter, a cold, house renovations beginning, a tree branch falling on the swing set (no injuries, fortunately), and the need to study Drek's advice here.
So, a few things I might have wanted to discuss, but am now happy to relegate.
The Dustbin of History is a good idea:
Posts I Might Have Written:
Pick up here and chase the ride
The river empties to the tide
Fall into the ocean
The river to the ocean goes,
A fortune for the undertow
None of this is going my way...
Strength and courage overrides
The privileged and weary eyes...
Pick up here and chase the ride
The river empties to the tide
All of this is coming your way
Only in part because the alternative isn't a song we talk about on family blogs, though several subprime borrowers may find this more appropriate:
I am friend to the undertow
I take you in, I don't let go
And now I have you
*It is also necessary, for this model to have a chance of working, to assume that their policies also do not reflect their speeches or predelictions. For instance, George W. Bush mentioning several times, though in an offhand manner, during the run-up to the 2004 election that he wanted the government to address issues with Social Security must in no way have affected the political discussions of 2005-2006.
Labels: Angry Bear, Economics, Economists View, just life, mortgage, schools, subprime
Monday, June 25, 2007
In Defence of the Old Firm
by Ken Houghton
It may well happen, but it won't be cause and effect. Dealing strictly with public information:
That said, both of their conclusions are reasonable:
"Never seemed eager to sell itself" is appropriately wishy-washy, but leaves an impression that is (being wishy-washy myself) arguably inaccurate.
More accurate is Naked Capitalism's own comment:
The second part may be true, even if Ken Lewis doesn't think so. On the first, you have to assume that the "best talent" would be able to find acceptable compensation elsewhere.
In short, there is a reason that BSC trades lower than its "comparables," and the takeover price would, were the market efficient, adjust accordingly. As usual, it would be a matter of haggling over the price.
If it does happen, the delay has probably cost BSC shareholders several dollars per share. But, again, Jimmy Cayne isn't getting any younger, and may see last week as an opportunity.
The authors of Naked Capitalism (h/t cactus at Angry Bear) post the first discussion taking last week's events to their logical conclusion.
It may well happen, but it won't be cause and effect. Dealing strictly with public information:
- There have been rumours of other firms (most noticeably HSBC) making serious bids for the firm in the past several years
- There are firms that would be a very good fit (most notably, imnvho, this one).
- James E. Cayne isn't getting any younger.
That said, both of their conclusions are reasonable:
However, [Merrill Lynch analyst Guy] Moszkowski estimated that if Bear Stearns loses half the amount of its loan, that would knock roughly $7 a share off its net earnings in a year. That's about half this year's forecast profit, the analyst noted.
He added that if such losses mount, Bear Stearns could become vulnerable to a takeover....
Bear has never seemed eager to sell itself, but would benefit from a greater global presence, Moszkowski wrote.
"Never seemed eager to sell itself" is appropriately wishy-washy, but leaves an impression that is (being wishy-washy myself) arguably inaccurate.
More accurate is Naked Capitalism's own comment:
But that begs the question of who would be so rash as to purchase Bear. Investment bank acquisitions have a terrible track record, and Bear would be a particularly tough deal. It has the most sharp-elbowed culture on the Street, and also the highest payout on revenue production, a toxic mix to any acquirer (bringing pay practices in line with those of the new parent would lead to an exodus of the best talent). And its most attractive business, its number one spot in prime brokerage, appears almost certain to be on the verge of a cyclical, if no a secular, decline.
The second part may be true, even if Ken Lewis doesn't think so. On the first, you have to assume that the "best talent" would be able to find acceptable compensation elsewhere.
In short, there is a reason that BSC trades lower than its "comparables," and the takeover price would, were the market efficient, adjust accordingly. As usual, it would be a matter of haggling over the price.
If it does happen, the delay has probably cost BSC shareholders several dollars per share. But, again, Jimmy Cayne isn't getting any younger, and may see last week as an opportunity.
Labels: Angry Bear, Market Failures, Naked Capitalism, The Old Firm
