Monday, March 14, 2005

Those Wacky Prediction Markets

by Tom Bozzo

Condoleezza Rice says she won't run in 2008 with as much firmness as can reasonably be expected, and whose candidacy is tanking at TradeSports as of 10:30 Central Time? Rudy Giuliani. His contract is off 42%, versus a 10% drop for Rice.

Now, I'd have shorted the Frist-Giuliani-Rice combination last month had I been so inclined (see the comments here for some contemporaneous discussion; see also Nina Camic here for a nice description of Rice's gift for BS). I think the true probability that Giuliani will be the 2008 Republican nominee is nearly zero for reasons that should be fairly obvious. The question is one of timing. What gives today?
That's an easy one. You can make Rudy your candidate if the undercard follows strict Republican values.

And Condi declared herself to be "pro choice." (Not as anyone understands the phrase, but nonetheless.)

So if she's VP, that would be a Republican ticket with two "pro-choice" candidates.

So Rudy cannot be the choice. It has to be someone such as Dr. Bill "I don't know if AIDS is transmitted by sweat" Frist.
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