Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Question: How Much You-Know-What Will the Republican Electorate Eat?

by Tom Bozzo

Given recent news that would convert the campaigns of politicians without infernal contracts in their filing cabinets into flaming wreckage, the question arises, "That's all well and good, Mr. Smarty Pants, but what does the Wisdom o' Crowds have to say?" Well, here it is via Intrade:
Wisdom o' Crowds
So it looks like there's been some reaction to the news, but only to the extent of returning the "market" assessment of Giuliani's campaign to where it was a month ago. Candidate answer to the post title's question: plenty, yum yum!

What of the surging Huckabee, whose genial insanity is raising concern around the blogs? He's clearly broken out of the pack into a solid 3d place in the prediction markets' account, though the contract to look at for an explanation is that for Grampa Fred. Think of Thompson's support as partly reflecting the ABFF [*] vote, especially seeing as it was based almost entirely on a Platonic ideal of a campaign rather than the Is This Thing On? reality. (Remember, once upon at time you could see MSM pulling quotes from the field to the effect that people could convince themselves that the actor-lawyer-lobbyist with the much younger spouse was a Godly Conservative.) And given the religious right-wing component of the nominating electorate, it would be more remarkable if there weren't a Huckabee in the field. He seems to be the most prominent beneficiary of the Thompson collapse, but not the only one.

The interesting issue is whether the current Republican rift Huckabee has exposed would be healed if Giuliani implodes and the money vote doesn't migrate to Slick Mitty. You've seen Novakula, but here via some wingnut spam I receive for no apparent reason is Dick Viguerie. Granted, Wingnuttia is adept at patching things up, but the median pocketbook voter should take Rubinomics 2.0 via Hillary Clinton without blinking. [**]

Meanwhile, for those of you who didn't see it via Atrios, this is Teh Funny:

[*] Anybody but the Front-running Freaks.

[**] Famous Last Words risk noted.

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