Thursday, March 06, 2008

Baseball, Asymmetrical Information, and Efficient Markets

by Ken Houghton

I walked past Douglas Coate's office a couple of times yesterday. Had I seen this paper (PDF) (h/t Tyler Cowen via Portfolio), I might have stopped in.

Curiously, especially if you exclude CIN games,* it appears that Rose was a better gambler when he didn't have access to information (i.e., better overall betting on the AL than the NL).

UPDATE: The distribution is interesting. Assuming the data is correct, The Philadelphia Phillies are responsible for 29% of his losses over the period. Indeed, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Houston account for over 60% of the dollar losses.

And to no one's great surprise, the same teams, along with San Diego, are the teams where Rose bets frequently and (presumably) the wrong way, with the Phillies again setting the standard:

Maybe more tomorrow.

*Which makes sense, since the consensus is that Rose always bet those, and only to win. Though the April 25th entry of "no bet" may be indicative something else.

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