Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Even More Republicans for Hillary!

by Tom Bozzo

The Mississippi primary exit polling indicated that 13% of the voters on the Democratic side self-identified as Republicans, and they went 3-1 for Clinton. This is an even bigger swing than we previously saw in Ohio and Texas, and just about the mirror of the Obama crossover vote in the earlier contests. As I am wont to do, I checked the 2004 Democratic primary exit poll which showed only 6% of the participants to be Republicans.

There is a bit of evidence for strategic voting in the Mississippi results. With the other side done, the poll now includes a breakout of results by opinion of McCain. Of the respondents, 13% had a "strongly favorable" view of McCain and they voted for Hillary 70-25. Oh, to have a crosstab by party ID! Clinton also led among the additional 25% with "somewhat favorable" views of McCain 50-43. She also carried the "conservative" vote (24%) 53-43.

This leads me to amend my previous post by asking, "Republicans overwhelmingly for Hillary, are you totally f***ing nuts?"


If they don't perceive that the 2002 speech was a political event, and an outlier in his career, they may view Obama as the person most likely to damage the W legacy.

But that's the complicated theory.

More likely, they (1) wanted their vote to count for something and (2) wouldn't vote for a (half-)black.
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