Thursday, October 25, 2007
Bullet Points I Won't Get To
by Ken Houghton
Especially in the context of that last, there has been a lot of straw-man idiocy recently alleging the superior "efficiency" of the private sector. But, as has been noted frequently, if you assume a functional democratic republic, there is a clear process in place for improving efficiency, one dependent only on the will of slightly over 50% of the people being realised.* That mechanism in the private sector (Shareholder meetings) is, at best, even less responsive.**
*I will freely stipulate that this is more true of an actual democracy than a democratic republic such as the United States. Overall, though, for a population of 300MM+, both (1) the benefits outweigh the risk and (2) that is the process.
**Oh, right, in Masonomics, you blame the victims.
- Barron's, via Felix Salmon:
As a retail-industry laggard with tired locations and mediocre merchandising, Sears figures to suffer mightily if consumers retrench and the economy slows, they insist.
English translation: people know where their stores are, so they won't go there.
This, one presumes, is why the accompanying graphic declares that Sears is "A Screaming Bargain: The implied value of Sears' retail real estate is absurdly low relative to competitors' property." - Because Everyone Cares about the Green, not the Yellow, Jersey:
And for the first time since 1967, the race will start with a full road stage, 121 miles from Brest to Plumelec in Brittany, instead of an opening individual time-trial race against the clock that had become traditional. The goal is to give more riders, and not just time-trial experts, the chance to compete for the race lead and its coveted yellow jersey from the very start.
Right; because a pack sprint and a Tom Boonen victory will definitely be something New and Unusual for the first week of the tour.
Continuing with Press Release "Reporting":After the drug problems of the past two Tours, [there will be] 19 major mountain passes that riders will face, two fewer than in this year's race.
Because mountains are never interesting television, and climbing video (not to mention those 70mph descents) are boring."The idea was really to break the classic scenarios," Tour director Christian Prudhomme said. "I am convinced that cycling will rediscover its romanticism that made it a legend."
I'm convinced that the Tour de France just moved to a lower Utility Curve. - Via Felix again, a Milken Institute report indicating that Congestion Pricing Works [PDF] —but so far has required an autarch to be implemented successfully.
In the case of London, Mayor Ken Livingston was determined to introduce congestion charging and made it part of his platform in 2000. The act restoring the mayoral form of government to London after more than two centuries also gave him powers to introduce congestion charging without consent from the national government....
Later on, the public indirectly endorsed the plan, re-electing Livingston a year after congestion pricing was introduced. There were no U-turns at the local
government level at any point.
Singapore has been run by the People’s Action Party since it first won an election in
1959. As the ruling party, it has dominated most of the political and economic development of Singapore....Thus, it is not surprising that once the decision was made to charge for road use, there was little dissent. [emphasis mine]
The most encouraging part of that, from NYC's point of view, is bolded above. Londoners voted for a man who promised to deal with congestion by setting a charge for externalities, and he did. And they re-elected him.
Especially in the context of that last, there has been a lot of straw-man idiocy recently alleging the superior "efficiency" of the private sector. But, as has been noted frequently, if you assume a functional democratic republic, there is a clear process in place for improving efficiency, one dependent only on the will of slightly over 50% of the people being realised.* That mechanism in the private sector (Shareholder meetings) is, at best, even less responsive.**
*I will freely stipulate that this is more true of an actual democracy than a democratic republic such as the United States. Overall, though, for a population of 300MM+, both (1) the benefits outweigh the risk and (2) that is the process.
**Oh, right, in Masonomics, you blame the victims.
Labels: bicycle racing, congestion pricing, conspicuous consumption, rational expectations, sports
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Could It Get Any Worse?
by Ken Houghton
The best that can be said about yesterday's announcement that pre-race favorite Iban Mayo, who finished 16th, tested positive for EPO on the second rest day is that it was underreported.
This, unfortunately, probably will not lack reporting:
It's not necesarily as bad as it looks. But there were teams and riders excluded this year because of Operation Puerto allegations; Contador was not one of them.
Continuing the exploration of Rational Expectations at the link above, Vino's "B" (backup; second) sample also tested positive. Some remain convinced:
Again, if there is a 100% chance you will be tested, why not at least use your own blood?
The great final result was tarred so much there is little need of feathers.
The best that can be said about yesterday's announcement that pre-race favorite Iban Mayo, who finished 16th, tested positive for EPO on the second rest day is that it was underreported.
This, unfortunately, probably will not lack reporting:
[Werner] Franke said he has documents from last year's Operation Puerto doping investigation in Spain that show Contador, a Spaniard who won the doping-marred Tour on Sunday, had taken HMG-Lepori as a testosterone booster and an asthma product called TGN.
"We can confirm we have received the documents, and they will be incorporated into procedures of the district attorney's office," Christian Brockert, spokesman for Germany's Federal Criminal Police Office, told The Associated Press....
Contador, who rides for the Discovery Channel team, missed the 2006 Tour when his former team, Liberty, was disqualified because he and four other riders -- plus the team director and doctor -- were allegedly linked to Operation Puerto.
It's not necesarily as bad as it looks. But there were teams and riders excluded this year because of Operation Puerto allegations; Contador was not one of them.
Continuing the exploration of Rational Expectations at the link above, Vino's "B" (backup; second) sample also tested positive. Some remain convinced:
Officials with Kazakhstan's cycling federation on Tuesday expressed staunch support for Alexander Vinokourov who was excluded from the Tour de France following a positive test for blood doping.
"We are going to support the position that the results of the A and B samples were a direct result of the violent fall Alexander suffered during the fifth stage of the cycling race," said the executive director of the federation, Aleksandr Antychev.
Again, if there is a 100% chance you will be tested, why not at least use your own blood?
Labels: bicycle racing, rational expectations
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Vino points out what I tried to say earlier
by Ken Houghton
which resulting in some confusion in the comments.
Leave it to the rider to put it directly:
Precisely. If you're going to dope—with the purpose of winning the stage, and therefore the inevitability that you will be tested—you don't do it in such an obvious way.
Meanwhile, the battle between Leipheimer and Evans for second ends with a eight second difference overall, while Contador stays in first by 23 seconds (meaning there are 31 seconds between first and third place.)
The sprint time bonuses in Paris might make it an interesting final stage yet.
Down in this post, I footnoted:
No Mankiwian economist would assume Vinokourov is guilty, since the stage winner is automatically tested and the chance of getting caught would reasonably approximate 100%.
which resulting in some confusion in the comments.
Leave it to the rider to put it directly:
"I have been tested at least 100 times during my career. These test results simply make no sense. Given all the attention paid to doping offenses, you would have to be crazy to do what I have been accused of, and I am not crazy." [emphasis mine]
Precisely. If you're going to dope—with the purpose of winning the stage, and therefore the inevitability that you will be tested—you don't do it in such an obvious way.
Meanwhile, the battle between Leipheimer and Evans for second ends with a eight second difference overall, while Contador stays in first by 23 seconds (meaning there are 31 seconds between first and third place.)
The sprint time bonuses in Paris might make it an interesting final stage yet.
Labels: bicycle racing, rational expectations
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Yet Another Press Corpse
by Ken Houghton
UPDATE III: The Freaks go all Marley on us, suggesting the Tour just"Legalise It."
I spent most of yesterday waiting for a story about the withdrawl of the Astana team (in the wake of the strange test result of Alexandre Vinokourov*) to mention Andreas Kloden, then fifth overall and a strong contender for a podium spot, if not the maillot jaune (yellow jersey), coming into today's stage.
It never happened. The "story" was solely Drugs in Bicycling.
So on the day when Michael Rasmussen put in a marvelous ride—winning the stage late and all but clinching the maillot jaune—the "news" is that
Christopher Moreni (one of the riders tested randomly during Stage 11) tested positive for non-natural testosterone.
Not exactly a major story.**
And so the "news" situation has become absurd:
If we want to stop pretending that sports is news, I'm all for it. But if all you want to report is the salacious and the absurd, just stay on the Washington, D.C., beat with the rest of the Press Corpse.
UPDATE: Courtesy of My Loyal Reader. It appears there will be two Discovery Channel riders on the podium, and the Swiss can probably cover this:
UPDATE II: And so today, again, is a sad one.
*No Mankiwian economist would assume Vinokourov is guilty, since the stage winner is automatically tested and the chance of getting caught would reasonably approximate 100%.
**Need proof? Quick, name the last three players suspended for violating MLB's steroids policy.
UPDATE III: The Freaks go all Marley on us, suggesting the Tour just"Legalise It."
I spent most of yesterday waiting for a story about the withdrawl of the Astana team (in the wake of the strange test result of Alexandre Vinokourov*) to mention Andreas Kloden, then fifth overall and a strong contender for a podium spot, if not the maillot jaune (yellow jersey), coming into today's stage.
It never happened. The "story" was solely Drugs in Bicycling.
So on the day when Michael Rasmussen put in a marvelous ride—winning the stage late and all but clinching the maillot jaune—the "news" is that
Christopher Moreni (one of the riders tested randomly during Stage 11) tested positive for non-natural testosterone.
Moreni was in 54th place overall at the end of Wednesday's stage, 1 hour, 56 minutes and 11 seconds behind Rasmussen.
Not exactly a major story.**
And so the "news" situation has become absurd:
One of Switzerland's largest daily newspapers, Tages-Anzeiger, is stopping race coverage from the Tour de France immediately and will only report doping-related stories, an editor said on Wednesday....
Buechi said the Zurich newspaper's editors had decided just to give the stage and overall standings on the sports pages, alongside stories from their reporter following the Tour on the latest developments in the doping affairs.
If we want to stop pretending that sports is news, I'm all for it. But if all you want to report is the salacious and the absurd, just stay on the Washington, D.C., beat with the rest of the Press Corpse.
UPDATE: Courtesy of My Loyal Reader. It appears there will be two Discovery Channel riders on the podium, and the Swiss can probably cover this:
Michael Rasmussen, the leader of the Tour de France, was withdrawn from the race and dismissed by his sponsor, Rabobank, late last night after the doubts over his ethical credibility reached a head with accusations of lying to his team....
“Rasmussen has violated the rules of the team,” a Rabobank team spokesman said. “It is not sure if the team will continue in the race.” ...
His dismissal ended a torrid day that also saw the withdrawal of the Cofidis team of Bradley Wiggins, the British rider, in the aftermath of the failed drugs test of Cristian Moreni. The team’s Italian rider tested positive for testosterone after the eleventh stage to Montpellier.
UPDATE II: And so today, again, is a sad one.
*No Mankiwian economist would assume Vinokourov is guilty, since the stage winner is automatically tested and the chance of getting caught would reasonably approximate 100%.
**Need proof? Quick, name the last three players suspended for violating MLB's steroids policy.
Labels: bicycle racing, Journamalism
Friday, July 20, 2007
Cross-Promotion Anomie of the Day
by Ken Houghton
Phil Liggett, with one of the great graceful voices in sports reporting, reading the promotion for the upcoming Versus (nee OLN) broadcast of a World Extreme Cage Fighting on August 5th between "The Natural Born Killer Carlos Condit" and someone named Brock Larson (roughly):
Somewhere, the ghost of Fabio Casartelli is crying.
I am involuntarily (but not objectionably) off work today and yesterday, so posting will be light as household reorganization and paperwork happens. (Infrastructure remains essential.) Fortunately, Tom has three marvelous posts to keep you interested.
Phil Liggett, with one of the great graceful voices in sports reporting, reading the promotion for the upcoming Versus (nee OLN) broadcast of a World Extreme Cage Fighting on August 5th between "The Natural Born Killer Carlos Condit" and someone named Brock Larson (roughly):
You don't watch this show unless you're fond of seeing blood.
Somewhere, the ghost of Fabio Casartelli is crying.
Labels: bicycle racing
Friday, May 18, 2007
My Last Word on Competitive Cycling
by Ken Houghton
But wonder no more about privileged treatment for athletes; the next time someone at ESPN preaches about its evil, feel free to point out this:
Right. Because athletes tell fellow athletes the same things they say to journalists, and only that. And journalists always reveal everything true they are told.
UPDATE: See Nate Fowler's perspective here, especially:
So the Court of Public Opinion is swayed more by "a legally ill-advised and personally vicious phone call" than by the preponderance of evidence?
But wonder no more about privileged treatment for athletes; the next time someone at ESPN preaches about its evil, feel free to point out this:
The ironic consequence of Geoghegan's action was that it gave LeMond's statements greater impact. Without it, LeMond's other testimony would have boiled down to an ambiguous he-said, he-said about his original chat with Landis last August.
Landis called LeMond to chew him out for making publicly critical statements after Landis' positive drug test was confirmed. LeMond's recounting of that dialogue, while intriguing, hardly constituted a smoking gun.
"I would hope and encourage you to come clean," LeMond said he told Landis.
"What good would that do," LeMond said Landis replied. "If I did, it would destroy a lot of my friends and hurt a lot of people."
The potential problem with that testimony, as spoke-heads know, is that its essence so closely resembles a similar conversation LeMond said he had with Lance Armstrong after the Texan won his third Tour de France in 2001.
How believable is it that LeMond had the ability to induce veiled admissions from both of the other American Tour winners, when a battery of lawyers and investigators and journalists have failed at the same task for the past eight years?
Right. Because athletes tell fellow athletes the same things they say to journalists, and only that. And journalists always reveal everything true they are told.
UPDATE: See Nate Fowler's perspective here, especially:
The more I raced and the more I followed professional cycling, the more I began to become aware of the dark side of American cycling and the deep personality conflicts that existed. The mainstream media has never covered that side of the story, but like the family next door that appears to be perfectly normal until the day it all falls apart in a huge dazzling public display of whackiness...
Labels: bicycle racing, Journamalism, social networks
