Saturday, July 28, 2007

Vino points out what I tried to say earlier

by Ken Houghton

Down in this post, I footnoted:
No Mankiwian economist would assume Vinokourov is guilty, since the stage winner is automatically tested and the chance of getting caught would reasonably approximate 100%.

which resulting in some confusion in the comments.

Leave it to the rider to put it directly:
"I have been tested at least 100 times during my career. These test results simply make no sense. Given all the attention paid to doping offenses, you would have to be crazy to do what I have been accused of, and I am not crazy." [emphasis mine]

Precisely. If you're going to dope—with the purpose of winning the stage, and therefore the inevitability that you will be tested—you don't do it in such an obvious way.

Meanwhile, the battle between Leipheimer and Evans for second ends with a eight second difference overall, while Contador stays in first by 23 seconds (meaning there are 31 seconds between first and third place.)

The sprint time bonuses in Paris might make it an interesting final stage yet.

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The final stage is usually... unusual! In the first part (say 100 km distant from the finish line) you'll see the leaders drinking (or pretend drinking) champagne. Then the second part is devoted to (useless) attacks ending in a final rush towards the arrival. I really cannot figure out what is going to happen tomorrow. Will the convention of "no attack in the first part" be broken? My bet is that the Discovery Channel team will secure Contador's victory at any cost. Whatever happens to Leipheimer.
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