Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Back in Action
by Tom Bozzo
Of course, there has been the post-debate scorekeeping. Talk at the water cooler and in my (partisan) Friday bike-to-work group was solidly in the Kerry-kicked-ass department. Unlike in 2000, this seems to have further solidified over the weekend.
Still, over at the libertarian economics blog Marginal Revolution, Prof. Tyler Cowen of George Mason U. read the debate bounce via the price of the contract for Bush's re-election (the price of which can be interpreted as indicating something about the distribution of beliefs over the probability of re-election, with higher prices indicating that market participants think re-election is likelier) at the TradeSports electronic market. While the contract price had dipped in the immediate aftermath, it bouced back slightly above pre-debate levels by mid-Friday morning, implying no bounce. However, the price has dipped considerably since, with a bid-ask spread of 59.6-61 as of bedtime last night (not materially changed this morning), down about 5 points since Friday. So even the participants in this market are reading a bounce.
More economics content this week, as I hope to discuss the D.C. baseball stadium proposal, some education econometrics, and the employment report due Friday. We will be watching, but not likely live-blogging, the debate between Edwards andDarth Halliburtius Vice President Cheney.
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(*) Law prof and L'Etoile forager Nina Camic plugs Weston's antique apples, and indeed I got the Best Apple Ever from them a couple years ago (a variety, whose name I can't recall, the flesh of which was like biting into apple ice cream). But I'd need to bring a sharpie to label the bags if I were to really try to sample a broad variety of their wares, as I find it darn hard to keep them all straight. Instead, we've been plowing through mass quantities of Cortlands and Miltons from Ela, from whom I hope to score a few delectable Moonglow pears if we can get out the door early enough.
The blog spent a quiet (long) weekend on spousal birthday hiatus. Some goings on:
- On the way back from an apple run (*) to the Farmer's Market, we found ourselves outnumbered by Republicans (identified by their BC'04 stickers) in the elevator of the State Street parking ramp, to our considerable surprise. We were polite to each other, though politics was not discussed.
- Proud Daddy moment (23-month-old edition): Boy leafs through Sandra Boynton's Moo, Baa, La La La in the crib, and turns to the page with "Some other dogs go BOW WOW WOW," he exclaims "duppa-yew!" (He has been playing with an alphabet puzzle.) Now, to teach him "W" is for "wrong."
- Last weekend's turned out to be the last "summer" market, as the Madison temperature officially hit freezing just before midnight last night, on its way to 28 this morning. Farewell, growing season.
Of course, there has been the post-debate scorekeeping. Talk at the water cooler and in my (partisan) Friday bike-to-work group was solidly in the Kerry-kicked-ass department. Unlike in 2000, this seems to have further solidified over the weekend.
Still, over at the libertarian economics blog Marginal Revolution, Prof. Tyler Cowen of George Mason U. read the debate bounce via the price of the contract for Bush's re-election (the price of which can be interpreted as indicating something about the distribution of beliefs over the probability of re-election, with higher prices indicating that market participants think re-election is likelier) at the TradeSports electronic market. While the contract price had dipped in the immediate aftermath, it bouced back slightly above pre-debate levels by mid-Friday morning, implying no bounce. However, the price has dipped considerably since, with a bid-ask spread of 59.6-61 as of bedtime last night (not materially changed this morning), down about 5 points since Friday. So even the participants in this market are reading a bounce.
More economics content this week, as I hope to discuss the D.C. baseball stadium proposal, some education econometrics, and the employment report due Friday. We will be watching, but not likely live-blogging, the debate between Edwards and
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(*) Law prof and L'Etoile forager Nina Camic plugs Weston's antique apples, and indeed I got the Best Apple Ever from them a couple years ago (a variety, whose name I can't recall, the flesh of which was like biting into apple ice cream). But I'd need to bring a sharpie to label the bags if I were to really try to sample a broad variety of their wares, as I find it darn hard to keep them all straight. Instead, we've been plowing through mass quantities of Cortlands and Miltons from Ela, from whom I hope to score a few delectable Moonglow pears if we can get out the door early enough.
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Ela's is earnest. Oh, are they earnest! And I did buy pears from them even if they only had one variety. Future Fruits are the pear kings of the market, however. Check them out! (Though dang those hyppie growers, they miss showing up sometimes -- like last week.)
Thanks for the tip on Future Fruits! We'll keep an eye out for them. John's tolerance for a full circuit of the market is fine if he has a Spice Girls wheel for distraction.
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