Friday, November 12, 2004

More on the 22nd Amendment

by Tom Bozzo

At the Yin Blog, Tung Yin, referencing Nina's invocation of the 22nd Amendment, notes:

Of course, that pesky 22nd Amendment also kept Bill Clinton from running in 2000. I have to think that, despite Lewinskygate and impeachment, Clinton would have beaten Bush pretty easily in 2000.

I'm inclined to agree, though I might have had to apply some torture-like persuasive measures to my mother, who only recently has forgiven Clinton his personal failings. Unfortunately, I don't think the counterfactual here is quite right.

The problem is that absent the 22nd Amendment, I'd guess Reagan would have been strongly favored to win a 3rd term in 1988 -- and maybe in 1992 as well. (Since I was -7 years old when he left office, I have to punt on Eisenhower.)

The good alternate-history question is what would have happened to George W. Bush's political career had George H. W. Bush never become President.
He would still be supplying Rafael Palmeiro and the rest of his ol' Texas Ranger squad steroids.
Perhaps so.

I'm one of those who could see GWB in Bud Selig's job, for which he's not clearly that much less suited than Bud himself.
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