Sunday, August 12, 2007
Yankees Update (fifth in a series)
by Ken HoughtonAnaheimLos Angeles, Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland). Erin and I can agree that we don't want to talk about the latter team right now.
But, going back to the original motivation for talking about the Yankees [April 10th], the predicted 110 wins seems safely impossible. Even after beating up on the bottom of the league and continuing winning, it is likely that some time this week, the prediction will be officially impossible.
Games Left 45
Need to Win 110
Have Won 66
Remaining Wins 44
Winning Pct Required 97.8%
One more loss, in other words. But what about the betting line at the beginning of the season?
Games Left 45
Expected Wins (Season Start) 97.5
Need to Win 31.5
Winning Pct Required 70.0%
Doesn't seem impossible, even though the team that has a losing record against both the East and West AL divisions. (They were two games over in Interleague play, and are 23-7 against the Central.) But it remains Not the Way to Bet—and, despite the recent streak, it's a more difficult requirement than it was when I ran the June 16th update.
(For completists, here are post two [April 24th] and post three [May 29th]. I can only attribute skipping July to more important sports and activities.)
The team is now fifteen full games over .500 (66-51), has broken Scott's heart, and looks to be a lock for the playoffs (they need to finish the season with a better record than two of
But, going back to the original motivation for talking about the Yankees [April 10th], the predicted 110 wins seems safely impossible. Even after beating up on the bottom of the league and continuing winning, it is likely that some time this week, the prediction will be officially impossible.
Games Left 45
Need to Win 110
Have Won 66
Remaining Wins 44
Winning Pct Required 97.8%
One more loss, in other words. But what about the betting line at the beginning of the season?
Games Left 45
Expected Wins (Season Start) 97.5
Need to Win 31.5
Winning Pct Required 70.0%
Doesn't seem impossible, even though the team that has a losing record against both the East and West AL divisions. (They were two games over in Interleague play, and are 23-7 against the Central.) But it remains Not the Way to Bet—and, despite the recent streak, it's a more difficult requirement than it was when I ran the June 16th update.
(For completists, here are post two [April 24th] and post three [May 29th]. I can only attribute skipping July to more important sports and activities.)
Labels: baseball, sabremetrics, Yankees
