Thursday, December 20, 2007

'Wisdom of Crowds' Watch

by Tom Bozzo

When last we checked in on the prediction markets, there was evidence of Peak Rudy! in the air. At his peak, he wasn't quite evaluated as the near-lock the crowd had once considered Hillary Clinton, but he's now set to be swallowed by at least the next four of the however many dwarves there are in the field:

'Wisdom of Crowds' watch

If not for the Actual Voting that will soon commence and throw some Actual Information into the market's maw, I'd say that things were converging on the Wisdom of Crowds deciding to shrug its shoulders rather than try to sharpen its pencil and figure out how the Republican nominating electorate really viewed the candidates. [*] Though it doesn't (or shouldn't) take a PhD in political strategy to figure out that "America's New Yorker Asshole" isn't a strong pitch. Dick Cheney may no longer care if people know what he's up to in his ceremonial offices in the OEOB, but the George W. Bush Experiment was (after all) to take an Actual Asshole and sell him as the Guy You'd Rather Have a Beer With.

[*] Yes, I'd rather be subjected to the Total Perspective Vortex myself.

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